TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe24d…0a3e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$9.7
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+203%+$33.5
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$23
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$26.4
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$39
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.25
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.5
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$13
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked T-Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$17.1
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$62.1
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+164.6%+$31.1
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.8
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.7
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+192%+$52.6
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$73
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+130%+$107.4
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$31.4
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+161.2%+$43.2
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+240.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.75
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$36.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico win on 2025-10-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will Argentina vs. Uruguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+117.4%+$16.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$21.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$62.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vera vs. Zahabibacked Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-09-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.