TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold hit $3,600 before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$300,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes3c66,688$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes8c27,755$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.594528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes1c12,870$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.712020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes3c7,683$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes5c7,049$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x647c…2c99backed Yes67c5,389$3,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,584.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No58c5,014$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4324…a086backed Yes44c5,014$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed Yes39c3,902$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc404…1af8backed No63c3,900$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes4c3,743$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,398$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes3c2,927$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,924$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.121,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No31c2,894$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.40per pick24cpaid+133.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c2,824$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.441306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156c…ad2abacked Yes5c2,751$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5321…c8e1backed Yes20c2,414$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes14c1,614$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.75908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes17c1,599$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes17c1,585$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.222744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No72c1,562$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6abe…d6a5backed Yes10c1,407$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.261861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes18c1,356$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.632653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73a8…a65bbacked Yes2c1,338$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c1,150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1523846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2dc…3a99backed Yes19c1,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes15c996.06$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes18c821.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.089442.6%40 W · 54 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x008b…439bbacked Yes22c811.56$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes29c800$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae6…5eb1backed No64c781.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes6c690.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.961225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8771…aba3backed Yes3c642.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes4c639.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4427…ccf4backed No79c631.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.934100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182f…fd1abacked Yes3c584.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1155backed Yes10c508.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe466…7083backed No77c472.81$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.81650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked No62c425.81$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes29c399.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd339…b70abacked Yes4c356.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ae…53c0backed Yes3c334.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No72c332.98$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No66c330.02$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.842161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes33c320.09$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.14911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-83.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a55…6a4ebacked Yes9c290.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes19c280$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8421011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes18c275.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No65c269.29$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.972128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e82…d977backed Yes6c257.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9c…c391backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes18c244.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.091060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee98…a26dbacked Yes20c243.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1c…78bcbacked Yes33c238.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed No59c236.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed No54c210$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0695…4accbacked Yes37c207.86$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No62c206.62$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.511520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…8049backed Yes21c200.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6711…7d95backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd690…c661backed No65c197.8$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes15c195.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.594040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…42e9backed Yes37c189.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes13c188.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.383718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a33…97c0backed Yes18c162.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e85…515cbacked Yes25c155.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes12c154.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.671,05134.7%365 W · 686 L-93.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes26c152.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.677334.2%25 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No69c142.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5744…9093backed Yes18c140.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…e666backed Yes18c137.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes29c137.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…5df5backed Yes24c133$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes24c121.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No75c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e238backed Yes18c119.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No57c115$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.73056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+29.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes25c112.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.845135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd118…a96dbacked Yes18c112.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes37c112.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked No70c110$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d1…7423backed Yes11c108.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0c…eb99backed Yes20c100.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes17c100.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24d…0a3ebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55fb…e346backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc1…6edfbacked Yes33c89.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…fed2backed Yes24c83.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No64c80.87$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No63c79.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No74c77.86$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…9c96backed No77c77.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0c…af79backed No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa242…cd4bbacked Yes14c74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x107b…ecdfbacked Yes24c71.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.