TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Timberwolves

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T-Wolvesof Thunder, T-Wolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,466,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,241,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,466,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x617a…07b4backed Thunder5c245,303$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,5001631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Thunder44c221,843$97,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,968.698333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed T-Wolves65c161,254$105,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,970.713764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed T-Wolves68c137,887$93,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,187.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ee…ed7bbacked Thunder0c117,180$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Thunder39c103,740$40,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,393.7214434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Thunder0c100,100$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Thunder19c86,434$16,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,428.9946426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed T-Wolves44c84,978$37,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,908.782147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Thunder4c80,129$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.645942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed T-Wolves42c77,776$32,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,11028241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Thunder0c67,250$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2514040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Thunder0c53,237$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9938027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Thunder13c49,485$6,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,637.9516537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed T-Wolves75c47,696$35,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,787.73,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder58c44,392$25,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,747.335959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder57c40,899$23,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,408.1296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed T-Wolves76c40,309$30,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,74122457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked T-Wolves42c37,707$15,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,870.312138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder57c33,979$19,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,221.511,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Thunder6c33,157$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.8218518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Thunder19c32,834$6,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,254.748036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Thunder4c32,581$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.5613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed T-Wolves79c32,000$25,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,720633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…6d3bbacked Thunder7c29,518$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.85349.1%26 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c4a…74ddbacked Thunder1c25,250$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33513546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder57c24,587$13,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,968.4413560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed T-Wolves42c23,810$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,809.526873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed T-Wolves42c23,732$10,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,648.7961851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed T-Wolves43c21,187$9,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,076.3635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Thunder0c21,156$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.885121.6%11 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Thunder58c20,574$11,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,9337946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Thunder0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed T-Wolves42c18,431$7,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,604.1428341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed08…381cbacked Thunder58c18,032$10,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,478.1770%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0912…5739backed Thunder15c17,400$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93dc…896fbacked Thunder2c17,125$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2975129.4%15 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+57.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Thunder58c16,660$9,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,662.8416641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Thunder5c16,631$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.747929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c2…10cebacked Thunder22c16,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,520520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Thunder1c14,995$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9593041.9%390 W · 540 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x417e…626cbacked Thunder6c14,860$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Thunder31c14,536$4,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,438.533644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder58c14,534$8,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,404.918146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x069c…96e4backed Thunder4c14,329$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5705332.1%17 W · 36 L+7.8wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed T-Wolves78c14,261$11,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.725369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed T-Wolves49c13,264$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,751.3536843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf704…7ddbbacked Thunder19c13,004$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Thunder9c12,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12525039.6%99 W · 151 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder18c12,217$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.0633743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Thunder1c11,500$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-80.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Thunder20c11,300$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2607149.3%35 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Thunder59c11,292$6,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,662.379450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb39…ed7abacked Thunder59c11,249$6,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,636.872560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder51c11,128$5,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,692.3430443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Thunder32c10,862$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5003636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x322d…305fbacked T-Wolves42c10,321$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,986.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Thunder59c10,169$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0007445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Thunder10c10,101$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Thunder57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70028838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Thunder9c8,653$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.7725536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Thunder58c8,110$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.74128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x47f9…af6ebacked Thunder2c7,910$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.265318.9%10 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+80.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Thunder58c7,790$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500.0113239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddab…ec42backed Thunder1c7,558$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.014221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed T-Wolves42c7,471$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,333.288053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed T-Wolves72c7,428$5,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.251,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Thunder1c7,290$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.23935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed Thunder58c7,000$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0606250%31 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked T-Wolves43c6,947$2,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.626435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Thunder14c6,830$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.6923648.7%115 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Thunder58c6,690$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.21258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Thunder34c6,553$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.381,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Thunder30c6,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed T-Wolves42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.991978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked T-Wolves42c5,961$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.113636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x644c…8f6bbacked Thunder15c5,725$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.075145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked T-Wolves43c5,591$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,202.5759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8865…4f38backed Thunder9c5,356$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked T-Wolves78c5,334$4,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.6370640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Thunder5c5,250$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.072714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…ab4dbacked T-Wolves42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9001250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+252.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Thunder13c4,940$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6608921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Thunder20c4,833$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9855843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked T-Wolves42c4,747$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.3427163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Thunder2c4,672$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808714.9%13 W · 74 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Thunder45c4,597$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.9766744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835b…4738backed T-Wolves42c4,574$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.81850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Thunder0c4,333$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57623.7%18 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Thunder7c4,277$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0e…f969backed Thunder0c4,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.44922.4%11 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0662…5511backed Thunder59c4,113$2,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed T-Wolves42c4,050$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.971,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Thunder57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28028347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Thunder1c4,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.554573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed T-Wolves71c4,000$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.1119419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Thunder23c3,930$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.237734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Thunder11c3,827$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.2727041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Thunder58c3,678$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.4540627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…bb81backed Thunder59c3,563$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.