TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Pacers, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,547,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,418,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,547,436 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Pacers6c341,888$21,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,441.2146426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers34c196,529$67,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,780.0328341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Knicks62c186,703$115,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,062.283764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers39c157,000$60,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,810.0814434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Knicks62c150,000$93,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,00014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Pacers38c104,943$39,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,878.347335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked Pacers39c93,692$36,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,159.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Knicks61c90,498$55,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,294.032147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Pacers38c88,955$33,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,857.452540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks61c84,128$50,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,161.3896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Knicks62c81,283$50,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,887.364654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed Knicks62c68,672$42,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,760.031136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers32c63,720$20,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,16023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Pacers38c62,105$23,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,603.212138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Knicks63c47,876$30,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,518.4618146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Pacers6c45,738$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.088036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pacers37c41,587$15,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,3011,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Knicks62c40,485$25,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,354.3319149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks65c40,232$26,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,139.7529957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Pacers10c39,325$4,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,057.97929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Knicks64c33,333$21,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.8220248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Pacers37c33,000$12,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,2101618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Knicks61c31,331$19,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,219.1847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Knicks63c28,004$17,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,361.665050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Pacers29c27,505$8,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,081.7128347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Pacers39c27,200$10,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,6085350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Pacers39c26,143$10,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,197.737445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Pacers39c25,641$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.9722458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Pacers38c25,000$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,50010926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9708…925bbacked Pacers39c24,402$9,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,516.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-16%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Pacers29c24,373$7,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,171.448536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Pacers2c23,826$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4408714.9%13 W · 74 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Knicks63c23,500$14,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,7001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Knicks61c23,456$14,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,067.7628241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Pacers17c20,941$3,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,620.491978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2016…b4bebacked Pacers13c20,531$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,687.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Knicks71c20,000$14,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.9922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x281d…0c73backed Pacers6c19,168$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.332412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Knicks63c19,000$11,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,03023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers37c18,262$6,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,792.636843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Knicks61c17,731$10,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,914.9649849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pacers35c16,719$5,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,933.8413560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Knicks77c16,427$12,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,849.7470640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a9…132fbacked Pacers23c16,063$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,640.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Pacers22c15,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3003141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Knicks62c15,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.9920047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks69c14,823$10,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,537.353,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69d4…6775backed Pacers33c14,523$4,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,803.049638.5%37 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Pacers9c14,383$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.474062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers36c14,000$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,05076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Knicks62c13,527$8,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,172.581,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Pacers5c13,000$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6211,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pacers17c12,919$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.845942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed Pacers39c12,821$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+86.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Knicks67c11,624$7,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.418259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks61c11,392$6,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,415.0259653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Pacers10c11,299$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.522039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Pacers27c11,000$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92093041.9%390 W · 540 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…1ddbbacked Pacers10c10,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0756235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks70c10,215$7,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.11,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Pacers5c10,200$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51018518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Pacers14c10,109$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.31631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Knicks62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.994753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Knicks62c9,823$6,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,732.917038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked Pacers38c9,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Pacers10c8,668$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83238027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pacers27c8,164$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.8966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90d…0b4dbacked Pacers40c8,090$3,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,236333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Pacers27c7,701$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.079450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks63c7,222$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.361851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Pacers21c7,180$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.416841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers27c7,080$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.713636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Pacers21c7,071$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.0113133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…e9f3backed Pacers38c6,577$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers36c6,087$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.061,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3402,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Knicks63c5,911$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pacers4c5,846$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Pacers6c5,500$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.44535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Pacers35c5,361$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.125536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Pacers38c5,100$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Knicks63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8505843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Pacers39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95028838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Knicks68c4,868$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.146873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x372b…2edabacked Pacers54c4,647$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.961050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks80c4,304$3,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8691,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab07…1e7bbacked Knicks62c4,258$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.061866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba7…dde5backed Pacers39c4,256$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.752254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8307…1cadbacked Pacers18c4,240$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.653844.7%17 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c3c…1b01backed Pacers36c4,167$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Pacers6c4,123$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3834425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pacers37c4,057$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.381,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Knicks66c4,050$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3901752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e91…0042backed Pacers38c4,039$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.63742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers19c3,943$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.041,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pacers23c3,894$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.922,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Pacers37c3,750$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3855349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Knicks72c3,714$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.9613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f84…dd89backed Pacers8c3,557$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Knicks63c3,318$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.5766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.