NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8cd946359dee96aa1749897e98d73954bd7a6cd46a36e706786f371a0ed09c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Knicks | 39c | 3,054$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.03 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Pacers | 62c | 3,029$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.68 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks | 38c | 2,232$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.1 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 39c | 1,697$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Pacers | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Pacers | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe528…1511backed Pacers | 61c | 900$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Knicks | 41c | 410$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers | 59c | 407.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pacers | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Pacers | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Pacers | 60c | 259.85$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.91 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers | 10c | 259.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…6864backed Pacers | 59c | 216.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Pacers | 60c | 128.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Knicks | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Pacers | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Knicks | 40c | 61.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)this page
- Pacers vs Knicks: O/U 217.5Under won
- Pacers vs Knicks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Pacers vs Knicks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Pacers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.