TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,493,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,677,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,493,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 718 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15e0…8d86backed Pacers55c271,886$150,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150,668.053764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pacers53c101,246$53,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,900.2396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed Knicks51c96,068$48,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,243.141136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3196…146fbacked Knicks46c81,602$37,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,065.211936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers68c78,816$53,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,675.5214434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Knicks39c76,715$30,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,504.6228341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Knicks17c59,102$9,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,138.1713248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Pacers0c51,997$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7918518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pacers54c50,026$26,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,860.971,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Knicks45c50,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,50014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ee…ed7bbacked Knicks51c44,523$22,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,762.42933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Knicks34c42,016$14,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,750.827335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Knicks31c37,173$11,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,638.058259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Knicks40c26,667$10,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,915.6510357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Knicks15c26,633$3,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,747.7510926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d5…4ad3backed Pacers56c26,128$14,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,658.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Pacers8c24,746$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.7319419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Pacers54c22,344$12,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,065.937445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers30c21,234$6,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,28923342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Knicks46c19,805$9,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,694.5935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pacers53c19,301$10,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,146.3849849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pacers46c16,528$7,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,591.621,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pacers53c15,987$8,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,492.8413560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Pacers60c15,943$9,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,539.5822457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks37c15,768$5,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,906.553,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Pacers53c15,094$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0007946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers59c14,207$8,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,393.7829957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pacers68c13,021$8,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,864.451,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks43c12,994$5,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,404.5976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks43c12,297$5,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,042.191,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers48c12,012$5,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,713.6413636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Knicks45c11,906$5,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,568.265942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Knicks46c11,250$5,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0754252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Knicks46c10,680$4,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,767.21258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Knicks47c10,523$4,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,558.157261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Knicks48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.672842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks44c10,010$4,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,576.151,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pacers54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9459653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Pacers53c9,903$5,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,297.7420047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Knicks28c9,507$2,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,870.281631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Pacers50c9,505$4,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,718.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers54c7,706$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,135.9736843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Knicks71c7,390$5,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.81457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers47c7,351$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.7870640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Pacers52c7,312$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.2513239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks76c6,590$5,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.257929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Knicks46c6,500$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,509.998053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Knicks51c6,222$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.488345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked Knicks42c6,189$2,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,563.1414746.9%69 W · 78 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers53c6,153$3,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,261.211,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…7ddbbacked Pacers46c5,906$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks44c5,594$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.9161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Pacers21c5,547$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.48921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc583…d812backed Pacers47c5,319$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Pacers75c5,237$3,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.7616537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe1…5e04backed Knicks29c5,181$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,680.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Pacers52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6004551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Pacers70c4,618$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,210.288036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Knicks43c4,520$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,592.7525939%101 W · 158 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2016…b4bebacked Knicks48c4,289$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7c…6d3bbacked Knicks46c4,268$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,304.645349.1%26 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3339…48a5backed Pacers53c4,255$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Pacers53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12030826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Knicks23c4,000$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.497829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Pacers55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9813929.5%41 W · 98 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers52c3,810$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.071,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e1…0ae1backed Pacers53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Knicks20c3,711$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.6966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Knicks27c3,652$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.8815911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Knicks48c3,515$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.3848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Knicks30c3,337$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.579558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Pacers49c3,300$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62133743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Pacers54c3,264$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.782142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers34c3,043$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.6318146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Knicks46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6205843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Pacers53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5901978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pacers33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9903036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Knicks37c2,700$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.993641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Pacers24c2,650$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.0224423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Knicks46c2,473$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.165950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x281d…0c73backed Knicks32c2,400$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.842412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x915e…2a71backed Knicks48c2,395$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers54c2,392$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.741,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Knicks45c2,356$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.551,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Pacers54c2,315$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Pacers52c2,300$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.9936057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafe4…62d0backed Pacers67c2,157$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x372b…2edabacked Pacers69c2,133$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.371050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2b…12e3backed Knicks48c2,079$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Knicks49c2,024$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.587939.2%31 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…97d0backed Knicks47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06024855.6%138 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Pacers55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1008350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Knicks34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32030443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Knicks14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.997236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Pacers54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.995349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982a…48aebacked Knicks42c1,944$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a45…24cfbacked Knicks48c1,929$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Pacers49c1,925$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94417335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd104…37c7backed Pacers68c1,860$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Knicks46c1,859$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.74445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.