NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdaacef53c33d6b29b40df9416e2776e70e58117f8178abc6f7ef809593b56fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Pacers, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks | 59c | 843.69$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.68 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Pacers | 41c | 410$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 60c | 323$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7400…c5ccbacked Pacers | 42c | 305$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers | 51c | 101.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pacers | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pacers | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…cb92backed Pacers | 41c | 46.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Knicks | 61c | 44.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Pacers | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf3…30dbbacked Knicks | 46c | 28.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…34b5backed Knicks | 60c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Pacers | 78c | 22.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pacers | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…fc2abacked Knicks | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)this page
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 218.5Under won
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. PacersKnicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.