Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mexico win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb1a83d771cbff2240801fc2fb3ce3900c3fcfb3ae8f5dfd7ebbf16dcf073d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 38c | 35,227$13,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,386.3 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 62c | 35,000$21,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,314.94 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 62c | 2,188$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.02 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Yes | 41c | 1,690$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 1,426$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.79 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 57c | 1,229$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.66 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…26fdbacked Yes | 42c | 1,200$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 62c | 962.47$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.74 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 59c | 514.77$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 502.67$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 42c | 413.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 39c | 374.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 62c | 225$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 62c | 195.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…1647backed Yes | 42c | 149$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f11…5f80backed Yes | 40c | 130.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 38c | 130.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 43c | 117.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 109.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Yes | 43c | 109.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…f025backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 64.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…ddd7backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…f103backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 58c | 52.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…4339backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…367fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…b095backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 38c | 36.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…0a3ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.