Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a2d71eb16febee65822fb29f064ae9e117a2cfde43aa313733c1528c66a9ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 31c | 5,086$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.8 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 69c | 3,989$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.84 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 2,889$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.82 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…d3aabacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…7963backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 70c | 865$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 31c | 649.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 24c | 591$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 32c | 547.51$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 74c | 431.25$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 70c | 349.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 30c | 331.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 324.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 69c | 259.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…03c9backed Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04fe…d310backed Yes | 30c | 166.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…d560backed Yes | 29c | 136.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 131.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344e…121bbacked Yes | 30c | 105.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…6034backed Yes | 31c | 101.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…f247backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…ba34backed Yes | 30c | 91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…c215backed Yes | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…7092backed Yes | 22c | 66.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d6dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…feccbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 64.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 77c | 61.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…a1b8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 71c | 31.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Mexico win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.