Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38a42791b3de1d1fdf1f25f09452f3743bc8a7b413cb473f0e7643880de2cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 69c | 4,399$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 31c | 3,226$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.81 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…f416backed No | 69c | 1,569$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…a7d5backed Yes | 31c | 1,567$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 64c | 1,024$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.01 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.38 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 767$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 472.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.9 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed Yes | 31c | 406.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 30c | 167.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…6041backed Yes | 69c | 133.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 91.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…6034backed Yes | 27c | 75.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 64.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x763e…cee0backed Yes | 70c | 62.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 55c | 51.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…f103backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 70c | 31.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.49per pick | 22cpaid | +256.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…367fbacked No | 60c | 25.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 25.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?this page
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Mexico win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.