TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,747,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,864,106

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,747,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,077 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15e0…8d86backed Pacers33c302,878$99,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,928.573764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d23…aa99backed Pacers34c293,607$99,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193,780.592147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Thunder49c247,557$122,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,104.9546426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227d…83bdbacked Thunder67c227,040$152,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,116.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80cd…0273backed Thunder67c208,702$139,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,830.31475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder66c199,999$131,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,999.2414052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a21…ac9cbacked Pacers50c110,437$54,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,602.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Pacers33c99,999$33,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,999.3328241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Pacers63c97,069$60,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,168.9619249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Thunder67c94,892$63,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,577.771457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc605…d372backed Thunder65c83,591$54,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,109.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Thunder66c72,399$48,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,056.341060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Pacers33c61,545$20,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,067.645349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c3…8d15backed Pacers32c60,542$19,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,228.291233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba5d…bc10backed Pacers29c57,282$16,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,518.47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder68c40,005$27,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,303.7513560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers36c39,856$14,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,358.2118146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Thunder67c35,487$23,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,604.0528341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder52c34,593$18,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,159.320248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers36c30,441$11,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,336.614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Thunder67c30,000$19,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,949.987946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Pacers58c29,284$16,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,312.964484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder66c26,183$17,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,182.241,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Pacers39c25,506$9,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,628.3218151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Pacers43c24,382$10,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,956.268259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Pacers54c23,976$12,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,148.2213248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Pacers33c23,882$7,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,934.742540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e68…5472backed Thunder66c23,736$15,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,665.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Pacers41c22,350$9,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,079.075942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers35c22,000$7,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,26036843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Thunder7c21,222$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.032714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pacers35c20,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,1003036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Pacers52c19,885$10,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,492.8522457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Pacers33c18,908$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,668.364654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder54c18,497$9,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,988.1730443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers34c17,647$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,647.0623342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a44…7292backed Thunder66c17,630$11,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,635.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Pacers34c17,196$5,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,349.1850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Thunder53c17,012$9,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,016.449849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Pacers78c16,740$13,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.8129858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pacers34c15,995$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,519.632,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder57c15,982$9,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,034.8170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Thunder67c13,000$8,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,71023135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Thunder67c12,408$8,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,252.561450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad2…c594backed Pacers48c11,637$5,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,047.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c70…232abacked Pacers34c11,368$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,558.045337.7%20 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed Pacers32c11,019$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,471.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Pacers37c10,881$4,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,848.8848046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1292…e678backed Pacers39c10,455$4,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,413.4918144.2%80 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder32c10,305$3,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291.611,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Pacers34c10,000$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,619.9910049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Pacers33c9,623$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,485.4312040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Pacers52c8,718$4,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Pacers49c8,666$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.562532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers43c7,801$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,417.733,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Thunder67c7,772$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.4730251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder66c7,743$5,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.619149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8229…3765backed Pacers47c7,710$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Thunder64c7,649$4,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,882.4666744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Thunder0c7,178$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.855121.6%11 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pacers34c6,782$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.4913636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Pacers71c6,655$4,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.616537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked Thunder67c6,545$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…4cb2backed Thunder59c6,500$3,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.451241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Thunder67c5,948$3,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.9322458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Pacers33c5,933$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,996.1196447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Pacers44c5,883$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,295.4418518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Thunder1c5,733$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.863321.2%7 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick9cpaid+96.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eee…5d47backed Pacers37c5,653$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,552.532722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Thunder56c5,607$3,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,154.642142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a0f…0536backed Pacers50c5,585$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,806.324250%21 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+8.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Thunder46c5,532$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,54416919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983b…cac5backed Pacers34c5,426$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.47540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Thunder3c5,276$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.971030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…8eaabacked Thunder1c5,202$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.98185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pacers32c5,100$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4471,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6641…4a1abacked Thunder67c5,063$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,392.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Pacers34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3007445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Thunder66c5,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3008053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1d1…fda8backed Thunder68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Thunder52c4,970$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.71258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pacers36c4,564$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Pacers33c4,500$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,014.9430826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Thunder1c4,318$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.225502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed Thunder67c4,310$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Thunder54c4,100$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.1315724.2%38 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Thunder4c3,843$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.86230%0 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Pacers31c3,837$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.6238027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc93…8afbbacked Thunder70c3,803$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6741471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+81.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fc8…1bfbbacked Thunder66c3,768$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Thunder66c3,710$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.337734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder58c3,550$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.533743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c17…9edcbacked Thunder67c3,504$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Thunder53c3,464$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84030648.7%149 W · 157 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Pacers35c3,320$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1588350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Thunder63c3,288$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.88190%0 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd5b…567dbacked Thunder21c3,263$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.15933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Pacers34c3,252$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.3277745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Thunder66c3,227$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.491752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee2a…6aaabacked Pacers46c3,196$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+246.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.