NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfd0068d2755bb162904229209bba3e28f3f615f1a44d172235c2e12d5a1227c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Under | 53c | 5,252$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.31 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Over | 50c | 4,236$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.42 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Over | 45c | 2,951$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Under | 50c | 2,563$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.57 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 1,164$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 45c | 1,124$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.96 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Under | 52c | 761.08$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.32 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 47c | 476.42$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.82 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 49c | 423.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Under | 50c | 411.17$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.59 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Over | 50c | 370.32$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Over | 47c | 318.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Over | 48c | 299.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff35…d1e1backed Over | 51c | 271.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 45c | 231.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…ecbabacked Over | 44c | 177.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Over | 44c | 134.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…8f51backed Under | 57c | 97.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Over | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Over | 43c | 78.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 278 | 48.9%136 W · 142 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Under | 28c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc56…6f9cbacked Under | 55c | 51.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dc…2216backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6a…f057backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…3c3bbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 34.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…4fccbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Over | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…8785backed Under | 53c | 32.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…4f61backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…ced1backed Over | 51c | 21.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…1cadbacked Under | 72c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.