NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1539f44d777222ddfc51359c2a17ac415aa86cfef417f04df3346ae820e92fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74c3…8d15backed Thunder | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Thunder | 0c | 4,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers | 58c | 3,663$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.51 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers | 57c | 1,843$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.66 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers | 58c | 1,445$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 11c | 1,411$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder | 43c | 1,262$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.66 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Pacers | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Thunder | 41c | 822.9$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.39 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Thunder | 40c | 804.01$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.6 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8922backed Thunder | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pacers | 58c | 500.43$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.79 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Pacers | 59c | 499.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Pacers | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…d663backed Thunder | 41c | 250.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Thunder | 41c | 244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 41c | 157$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Pacers | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Thunder | 43c | 116.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Thunder | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Pacers | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…4fccbacked Pacers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Pacers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.