NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa3a1a69a1b488ed934806541c984d9c6924b184b28d9284604a1dbbc0cf50e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Pacers | 51c | 36,900$18,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,261.66 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Thunder | 50c | 19,766$9,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,866.74 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Thunder | 50c | 9,148$4,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,583.7 | 278 | 48.9%136 W · 142 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Thunder | 50c | 4,418$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.65 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Thunder | 1c | 4,082$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers | 51c | 3,154$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Pacers | 55c | 3,000$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Thunder | 40c | 2,320$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.25 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 29c | 2,278$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.25 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 49c | 2,240$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,980$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.45 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers | 57c | 1,768$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.47 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Thunder | 49c | 1,716$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Pacers | 75c | 1,531$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.68 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Thunder | 54c | 1,500$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.97 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers | 49c | 1,461$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.17 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Pacers | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Pacers | 50c | 1,017$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.91 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Thunder | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Pacers | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 160 | 42.5%68 W · 92 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder | 48c | 531.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.35 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…b588backed Thunder | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Pacers | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Pacers | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2a3cbacked Pacers | 51c | 401.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.96 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Thunder | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Thunder | 48c | 398.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7400…c5ccbacked Thunder | 51c | 328$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Pacers | 51c | 312.96$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…674dbacked Thunder | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed Pacers | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…d663backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Pacers | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers | 51c | 185.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed Pacers | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pacers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder | 49c | 110.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Pacers | 62c | 108.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Pacers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Pacers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…023fbacked Thunder | 49c | 99.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pacers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 44c | 91.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Pacers | 71c | 69.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Thunder | 49c | 66.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3d5bbacked Thunder | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Pacers | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…eea3backed Thunder | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Pacers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Thunder | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Thunder | 65c | 41.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…4f61backed Thunder | 49c | 34.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…8bfdbacked Pacers | 52c | 32.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Pacers | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Thunder | 67c | 24.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00e9…bddabacked Thunder | 51c | 20.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Pacers | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Thunder | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.