NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eaf0bc3ef10164932dd78d46f9e22d93279130cfa37fda3e589b9aefad0cbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 0c | 4,064$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Under | 42c | 3,473$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.34 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 58c | 1,822$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.49 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Over | 58c | 1,667$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.63 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…dce7backed Over | 4c | 1,474$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Over | 58c | 800.46$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.96 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 58c | 499.98$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.55 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Over | 58c | 149.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -15.6wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Under | 42c | 148.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Over | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…f04dbacked Over | 58c | 99.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…0fe0backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 57c | 54.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 41c | 42.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…ab8fbacked Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…3488backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 43c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…7186backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3d5bbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 223.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.