NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19410cec46016934b4a0c691a49476e4b2661967c6d1aad6f57088b1f2de8adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Over | 42c | 2,802$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.37 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 58c | 1,916$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.92 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Under | 62c | 1,093$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Under | 59c | 537$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Under | 61c | 420.23$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 42c | 237.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Under | 43c | 95.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 48c | 57.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794f…13f3backed Under | 43c | 50.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Under | 52c | 47.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3d5bbacked Over | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 39c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Over | 31c | 32.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Over | 52c | 26.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…7186backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…157dbacked Over | 62c | 23.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 233.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs Pacers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. PacersPacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.