Earnings · resolved market
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e71d4add7c90b367bff34c28e1f8d089b5492739e9aa35423d4d6d6c0083bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 22c | 1,505$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked No | 19c | 1,035$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 80c | 956.45$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 23c | 839.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05db…3130backed No | 15c | 661.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 78c | 539.05$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.81 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 23c | 512.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 500$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 19c | 429.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 18c | 425.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 25c | 404.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…28dfbacked Yes | 77c | 388.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 17c | 356.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 74c | 325$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…0d85backed No | 30c | 304.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed No | 24c | 277.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 19c | 263.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 257.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 15c | 234.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 227.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5a…8c02backed Yes | 78c | 217.56$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 18c | 213.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 204.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…92b5backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 31c | 194.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 80c | 170$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 19c | 152.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…974ebacked Yes | 77c | 145$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 18c | 136.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67df…772fbacked Yes | 76c | 130.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 16c | 120.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 21c | 110.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 109.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…0a3ebacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…1f99backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 18c | 98.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 73c | 67.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 23c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ddeebacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…0e17backed No | 36c | 60.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4a…e265backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked No | 20c | 50.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe55c…8a38backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…7af3backed Yes | 79c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…bff0backed Yes | 75c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 75c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…589abacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…12efbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…0443backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…6320backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6f…2595backed Yes | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.