Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14bbfde1f4fc2b37b16e0814f435e983fe971aa7a5f897693d828dba3fb6917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 17c | 11,604$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.2 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 9,175$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 11c | 6,882$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 23c | 3,748$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.57 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 6c | 3,324$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,367$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 20c | 1,721$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 20c | 1,552$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.89 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 1,533$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 10c | 1,389$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 18c | 1,367$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.61 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,312$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 1,289$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 1,091$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,067$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes | 21c | 914.36$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 79c | 900$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 21c | 639.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 20c | 612.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 24c | 601.66$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 26c | 600.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 11c | 600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 26c | 511.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 24c | 500.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…fca9backed Yes | 19c | 392.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 20c | 353.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 18c | 349.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 333.29$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 77c | 330$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 327.61$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…9c67backed Yes | 23c | 285.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 13c | 283.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes | 28c | 274.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 8c | 273$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Yes | 15c | 254.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…d4f0backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…f0a7backed Yes | 6c | 225$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…a8c2backed Yes | 24c | 220.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13d…47f5backed Yes | 26c | 218$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed Yes | 23c | 217.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 19c | 206$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 205.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 31c | 196.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 20c | 195.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…907abacked Yes | 28c | 176.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 176$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 23c | 166$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 78c | 165.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 19c | 130.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 30c | 124.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 18c | 120.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 12c | 119.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…0ac8backed Yes | 17c | 108.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ce…da52backed No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 95.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed Yes | 25c | 92.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed No | 79c | 91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc571…d6f1backed Yes | 37c | 86.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 23c | 82.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…c1c0backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 24c | 77.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 63.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf53…4db3backed No | 80c | 62.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 20c | 57.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e6…0b0abacked Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…a55fbacked Yes | 35c | 33.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 34c | 30.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…089fbacked Yes | 35c | 29.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…af87backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…74f4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?this page
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between -1% and -2% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.