Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will U.S. GDP growth be between -1% and -2% in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e56ea69b66119a0d9912ccb6f36df86541486d9ab68b90548b9f795c5b3eb74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 6,686$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 10c | 5,146$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.76 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.95 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,888$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 29c | 2,652$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…98f8backed Yes | 10c | 2,174$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…e5dcbacked Yes | 42c | 2,009$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 11c | 1,797$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 11c | 1,770$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,706$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 7c | 1,499$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,366$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,057$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…4c5ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…154bbacked Yes | 8c | 985$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 7c | 952.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed Yes | 7c | 808$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 9c | 683.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed Yes | 28c | 600$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9cbdbacked Yes | 16c | 570$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…c9a0backed No | 72c | 570$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 6c | 562$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 11c | 550.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…47ecbacked Yes | 8c | 548.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba1…0d6ebacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 12c | 482.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 11c | 462.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 21c | 446.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed Yes | 9c | 408.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 7c | 401.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…cddabacked No | 67c | 390$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 378.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 334.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 6c | 332.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 13c | 332.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 9c | 331.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked Yes | 10c | 315$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 301.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 17c | 300.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 18c | 290$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 9c | 275.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…9c67backed Yes | 8c | 246.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…7e4cbacked Yes | 9c | 210.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed No | 60c | 203.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 13c | 203$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 14c | 200.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…414bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 27c | 182.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…9e85backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Yes | 21c | 181.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…4ad1backed Yes | 29c | 170.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…a785backed Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…fb2fbacked Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 13c | 154.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf53…4db3backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cf…4fcabacked No | 70c | 140.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed Yes | 17c | 127$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 9c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…cadabacked Yes | 48c | 122.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e30dbacked Yes | 35c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…24bbbacked Yes | 29c | 119.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 31c | 118.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…9d53backed Yes | 13c | 110.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 22c | 109$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…ebf2backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…e9a3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…fb9bbacked Yes | 48c | 87.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 85.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…6e4fbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 29c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 51c | 71.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 57c | 70.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…2dccbacked Yes | 42c | 47.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…68f1backed Yes | 48c | 41.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 40c | 31.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…3d96backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…46b6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 17.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between -1% and -2% in Q1 2025?this page
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?No won
- Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.