TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x24cb…94dc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
16
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Premier League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 53 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$92.5
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$19.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 20?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 17?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
IEM Dallas: Aurora vs. HEROICbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$307.4
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. FaZebacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$52.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$3.45
Will Inter win on 2025-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carney say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs. Peyton Stearnsbacked Paolini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$4.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LEC: GIANTX vs. Movistar backed Movistar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$27.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$252.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dortmund beat Hoffenheim?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.