CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: Aurora vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x319c90f7e0c739fc4f032947f9c94bb48ab685e65e9cdbe68aa326bf79a9c4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HEROICof Aurora, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2a…2fe6backed Aurora | 54c | 42,018$22,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,689.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…e469backed HEROIC | 46c | 42,018$19,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,689.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HEROIC | 43c | 2,245$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed HEROIC | 45c | 2,173$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.06 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Aurora | 57c | 1,678$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.78 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked HEROIC | 44c | 1,501$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.81 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed HEROIC | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed HEROIC | 44c | 1,010$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…8b48backed Aurora | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…e780backed Aurora | 56c | 955$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Aurora | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…7f94backed Aurora | 56c | 845$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…531cbacked HEROIC | 42c | 760$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…54c8backed Aurora | 56c | 714$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…253bbacked HEROIC | 42c | 640$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked HEROIC | 45c | 622.19$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.21 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…94dcbacked Aurora | 58c | 530$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…fad0backed Aurora | 56c | 515$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 55c | 498.15$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…e835backed Aurora | 58c | 480$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84aa…74ebbacked HEROIC | 44c | 470$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…396dbacked HEROIC | 42c | 460$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…0e75backed HEROIC | 44c | 445$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…c295backed Aurora | 56c | 440$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…53ffbacked Aurora | 56c | 415$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…a82dbacked HEROIC | 45c | 415$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed HEROIC | 43c | 407.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.7 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…0dc3backed HEROIC | 45c | 385$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…05cebacked HEROIC | 44c | 360$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Aurora | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…9ab9backed Aurora | 56c | 355$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042c…6774backed Aurora | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…2f4bbacked Aurora | 58c | 335$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…6515backed Aurora | 55c | 335$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…f625backed Aurora | 58c | 335$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…4a6ebacked Aurora | 55c | 335$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…dc97backed Aurora | 58c | 330$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked HEROIC | 45c | 318.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…362bbacked Aurora | 56c | 310$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Aurora | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…8189backed HEROIC | 44c | 295$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…7a5fbacked Aurora | 58c | 290$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1de…9165backed Aurora | 56c | 265$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…3e31backed HEROIC | 44c | 265$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Aurora | 56c | 247$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…15c4backed HEROIC | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…d8b1backed HEROIC | 42c | 210$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…4875backed HEROIC | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed HEROIC | 44c | 190$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…893abacked HEROIC | 44c | 190$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36b…5cc8backed HEROIC | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6c38backed HEROIC | 42c | 190$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed Aurora | 56c | 177.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…ea44backed HEROIC | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…0c57backed HEROIC | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed HEROIC | 49c | 133.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Aurora | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Aurora | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…a487backed Aurora | 55c | 99.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…53e6backed Aurora | 55c | 91.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Aurora | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…df31backed Aurora | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…0965backed HEROIC | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4efabacked HEROIC | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Aurora | 54c | 76.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked HEROIC | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Aurora | 57c | 62.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…a364backed Aurora | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked HEROIC | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…140bbacked Aurora | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed Aurora | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed Aurora | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed HEROIC | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88b…cf8dbacked HEROIC | 45c | 38.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72f…ada8backed Aurora | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…80e1backed Aurora | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…c364backed Aurora | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…9387backed Aurora | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…29dabacked HEROIC | 58c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.