Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Dortmund beat Hoffenheim?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0dc15a81eac35db042cbdcbebcb1f40db5ba461d90740ff1e3cf648c92115ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 46c | 1,903$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.77 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…d3c4backed Yes | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…b410backed Yes | 54c | 1,145$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c03…21d0backed No | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 50c | 1,004$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.55 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 50c | 968.8$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…9204backed No | 46c | 910$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Yes | 54c | 888.91$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…c602backed No | 46c | 590$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c0…5783backed Yes | 54c | 455$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd620…f1fdbacked No | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…b6e9backed No | 46c | 345$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…94dcbacked No | 46c | 305$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed No | 29c | 305$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…2cbebacked Yes | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…ccf3backed Yes | 54c | 290$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 55c | 270.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…f8eebacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…9424backed Yes | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…253bbacked Yes | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked Yes | 76c | 175$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 51c | 120.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…5233backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…d89ebacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dortmund beat Hoffenheim?this page
- Will Hoffenheim beat Dortmund?No won
- Will Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund end in a draw No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.