Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund end in a draw
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0315d3cc4fcd31f94dcf3f530d916010dbd143e9ac3bd5c2f0f86246a66f4da4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked Yes | 22c | 995$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed Yes | 24c | 995$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 1c | 993$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.72 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…9a2bbacked No | 78c | 360$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…e690backed No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…fad0backed No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0f03backed No | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed No | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 25c | 118$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…9a9bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund end in a draw this page
- Will Dortmund beat Hoffenheim?Yes won
- Will Hoffenheim beat Dortmund?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.