Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa396c6bc1a16dfc30eb776074453a3125e0508dd29c306c72abd8663b40bbd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Yes | 64c | 2,775$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 36c | 2,485$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.2 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked No | 76c | 2,011$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…f59bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d62…f8eabacked No | 77c | 820$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 24c | 749.84$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.97 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 14c | 561.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.11 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 23c | 482.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…c27ebacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 23c | 352.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 47c | 350.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…bdcfbacked Yes | 46c | 327.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…74bfbacked Yes | 70c | 263.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 256.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 24c | 230.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…b38abacked No | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 23c | 204.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +403.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 78c | 164.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 26c | 163.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 22c | 151.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…7a95backed Yes | 68c | 130.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 79c | 126.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8235…c814backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…b684backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…3c62backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…b5d5backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 76c | 122.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dc…94a1backed No | 26c | 110.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 77c | 108.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 24c | 103.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 14c | 100.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +9.3wins | +0.23per pick | 29cpaid | +261.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…b8f5backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…e44abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…1a55backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1187backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…209cbacked Yes | 23c | 99.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f0…10efbacked Yes | 25c | 83.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…278abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…8339backed No | 77c | 75.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…4130backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 43c | 55.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 75c | 40.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…0cf9backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bc…e4bdbacked Yes | 68c | 25.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401b…3107backed Yes | 75c | 22.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 71c | 22.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Yes | 75c | 21.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…144dbacked Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…0313backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…2f4bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…fd0abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…94dcbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…a6c3backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +65%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…8b48backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…2554backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…5f90backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-16?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.