Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs. Peyton Stearns
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x419553aae41cc2da3d4c9fe7f40e43bbf746ef98d392204484223ea7fb4328a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paoliniof Paolini, Stearns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Stearns | 35c | 5,742$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.02 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Paolini | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Paolini | 51c | 2,024$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Stearns | 25c | 1,650$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paolini | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Stearns | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Paolini | 58c | 952$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.19 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Stearns | 24c | 865.22$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.8 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Paolini | 73c | 741.77$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.28 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Stearns | 27c | 690$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Stearns | 31c | 645.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Stearns | 34c | 456$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Stearns | 30c | 397.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Paolini | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6a…596fbacked Paolini | 61c | 303.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Paolini | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…e35fbacked Stearns | 31c | 265$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca8…9779backed Stearns | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Paolini | 62c | 165.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked Stearns | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9f24backed Paolini | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Paolini | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Paolini | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Paolini | 73c | 99.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Paolini | 73c | 96.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Stearns | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…4e27backed Paolini | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Stearns | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Paolini | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a913backed Paolini | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…89eabacked Stearns | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed Paolini | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…c602backed Paolini | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…aa8dbacked Paolini | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…2da7backed Paolini | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Stearns | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…2de6backed Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58dd…0ed1backed Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…5233backed Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…d8dbbacked Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Paolini | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…b2b5backed Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…d1a5backed Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…1d40backed Stearns | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…a102backed Paolini | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed Stearns | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed Stearns | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Paolini | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…c1debacked Paolini | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…1c30backed Paolini | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…9424backed Paolini | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…0183backed Paolini | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…94dcbacked Paolini | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e2…4e21backed Paolini | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…46cebacked Paolini | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.