TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Carney say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9230…22a2backed Yes65c935$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…6fa4backed No35c900$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1acf…5379backed Yes70c510.08$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ce…a356backed Yes65c505$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace9…3e37backed Yes65c475$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No41c474.14$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.024148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…d203backed Yes65c450$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6623…789dbacked Yes66c440$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…28b9backed No35c435$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa41e…d491backed No34c405$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3270…fccfbacked Yes65c405$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec1…a97abacked No36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked No31c381.01$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.762250%11 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No48c372.87$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.495242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbfd…2449backed Yes65c360$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5765…7a40backed No35c350$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbd…3880backed No35c340$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes63c319.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.051729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…e328backed No36c280$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f3…3f6cbacked No34c280$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be1…322ebacked No35c275$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb47…2c8abacked No36c275$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9b…a2d4backed No35c275$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7b…bcb4backed No35c270$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4448…cbe5backed No35c270$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b12…8e72backed No35c270$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3a…02bfbacked Yes65c265$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb756…8a10backed Yes66c235$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8bde…a062backed No35c225$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a7…b410backed Yes64c220$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No40c203.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes56c200$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6858…9b50backed Yes64c195$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x360a…4f30backed Yes64c190$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eca…01f2backed No34c190$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No57c185.04$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6212129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbc…1054backed No35c185$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes63c171.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.277944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbf…ba45backed Yes65c170$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8275…833ebacked No35c170$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24cb…94dcbacked Yes65c160$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f12…89eabacked No35c160$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8050…49ffbacked No35c155$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed No35c153.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.315424.1%13 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424c…5390backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+69.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7f5…b6e9backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f70…90d9backed Yes66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4622…a640backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffb…23b6backed Yes65c145$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d6…2da7backed Yes66c145$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8f…bd51backed Yes65c145$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe760…0ae4backed Yes64c145$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No24c143$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9744921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.27238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c2d…43f3backed No35c125$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eea…3c96backed No34c120$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe81b…5792backed No35c115$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd33…f625backed No35c115$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e00…c7dcbacked No35c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae8…b41abacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b31…1646backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d57…99f5backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe357…e06dbacked Yes65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aab…91cfbacked Yes64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e33…3075backed Yes64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1177…3fe3backed Yes65c85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198b…a1dcbacked Yes51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ed0…235abacked Yes65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58dd…0ed1backed Yes65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8017…d7debacked Yes65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes62c62.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0b…9ae8backed Yes64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes64c51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.111,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3be7…4f2bbacked Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes46c48.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2812630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014e…61aabacked Yes66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d3…b5cabacked Yes65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a2…cd92backed No40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedc0…a6c3backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf57d…8c1ebacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick55cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.214033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa345…55afbacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8751…fd3dbacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.