World Politics · resolved market
Will Carney say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32809d9cd711b5f55d9ebeafe656e6132b57209f55378c73729427b9cab4a7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x610b…eb00backed No | 44c | 23,507$10,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,163.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…2af9backed Yes | 56c | 23,507$13,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,163.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9cbcbacked No | 44c | 855$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 50c | 784.07$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.45 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b316backed No | 69c | 573.85$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…cbf3backed No | 62c | 534.6$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…9249backed Yes | 59c | 515$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…0c86backed Yes | 59c | 425$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…91cfbacked No | 41c | 310$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…1191backed Yes | 56c | 310$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 52c | 309$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 41c | 278.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 52c | 263.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 262.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…c074backed No | 41c | 240$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…8c1ebacked No | 44c | 240$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ba…e172backed No | 41c | 230$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…a356backed No | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…3c62backed Yes | 56c | 220$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 56c | 206.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 51c | 197.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…0796backed Yes | 56c | 165$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…5e3cbacked Yes | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e2…4e21backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 40c | 119.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…5f90backed No | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…65bdbacked Yes | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 40c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…cfa3backed No | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…78ccbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…3888backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634c…4d23backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…7a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…3fa6backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6213…bb46backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carney say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Carney say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Doug" or "Ford" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Elbows Up" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Hockey" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.