World Politics · resolved market
Will Carney say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x806c2c4be9aca743b3b6af0f14571a4dac84a52064daf40e7c250a67c5754b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 17c | 515$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 23c | 492.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 20c | 427.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 277.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked No | 22c | 270.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 79c | 247.93$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 214$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 18c | 208.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 36c | 206.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 65c | 188.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked No | 10c | 140.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 10c | 139.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…ca8dbacked No | 20c | 125.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 16c | 103.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 80c | 25.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carney say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Carney say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Doug" or "Ford" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Elbows Up" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Hockey" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Carney say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Carney say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.