Movies · resolved market
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6774997e483dc962153b20ace4ac54eef46c8962a17e2ba44d27283876176cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 1c | 48,512$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.45 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 5c | 45,509$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.88 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 32,388$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.63 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,035$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.6 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 7c | 18,354$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 16,278$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 13c | 13,056$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 12c | 10,651$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.29 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,582$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 10,536$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,413$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.93 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbc…3814backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 1c | 9,737$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…0416backed Yes | 2c | 7,630$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 5,503$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 16c | 5,500$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.98 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 6c | 5,333$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.18 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,314$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 9c | 3,264$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed Yes | 8c | 2,492$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 2,471$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,342$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 21c | 2,117$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.22 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,079$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.33 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 18c | 1,931$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.01 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 1,770$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 11c | 1,700$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.22 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 7c | 1,650$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,556$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 10c | 1,260$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 21c | 1,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,161$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 17c | 1,155$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 17c | 1,144$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 7c | 1,141$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 10c | 1,044$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…0ebcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked Yes | 5c | 923.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 12c | 906.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 16c | 805.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 7c | 777$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 10c | 729.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 22c | 488$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 22c | 470.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes | 7c | 444.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 19c | 420.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 21c | 370$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…c6ffbacked Yes | 5c | 310.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 278.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed Yes | 16c | 246.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 17c | 243$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 12c | 240.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…3748backed Yes | 11c | 191.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 13c | 182$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 80c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…bda5backed Yes | 10c | 150.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 127.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 25c | 103.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 17c | 89.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 34c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 15c | 65.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9f…95bdbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m?this page
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $30-35m?No won
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m?Yes won
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?No won
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.