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Movies · resolved market

Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $30-35m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,670
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,670 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f65…1592backed Yes22c22,081$4,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,882.993831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes6c18,233$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.511214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes17c17,401$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.136023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes14c15,993$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.651816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes20c15,829$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,173.7118431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No75c14,288$10,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes15c10,457$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.041799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes27c9,187$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.886918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes23c8,631$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.7213119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5115…b61dbacked Yes2c8,535$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.78128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes6c6,991$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.6418719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes16c6,834$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.534411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes23c6,718$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.42516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes8c6,074$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.994114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f77…c5c7backed Yes1c4,375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes27c3,610$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.235026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes1c3,482$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-70.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes17c3,338$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.1119031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes5c3,288$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.22190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes30c3,218$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.2332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50af…0693backed Yes3c3,098$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes19c2,613$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.157839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes18c2,590$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.787022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes17c2,558$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.191330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes13c2,500$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33416040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes13c2,482$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.451136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes22c2,464$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.083928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fb…02eabacked Yes7c2,244$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes19c2,184$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.2814530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes25c2,103$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.018633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes1c2,060$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.18234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes22c2,012$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.77126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes14c1,945$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.341286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes16c1,933$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2610037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed Yes7c1,750$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes26c1,476$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.472955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes19c1,407$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.381625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes27c1,359$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.38330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes20c1,101$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.163420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes10c1,091$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a52…3e04backed Yes11c1,054$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.192123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes28c1,006$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.839441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes24c992.23$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.924829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes21c943.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes15c852.02$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.866230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x290c…bd36backed Yes25c850$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes12c812.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes17c800$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.151216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd24…0416backed Yes10c767.7$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes31c750$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.520049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6acb…baefbacked Yes23c691.81$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.311330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb2…d43bbacked Yes16c690$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes20c667.58$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.59744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No74c605.27$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4548…025bbacked Yes10c585.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes29c564$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.756132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16513150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes22c464.8$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa93c…17b2backed Yes28c441.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.323745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes15c383$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.92917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes31c382.75$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No77c370.58$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.61566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c294.19$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes9c280$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.112416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes35c275$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.253941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ec…0dbabacked Yes12c226.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes19c225$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.052944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb044…0ebcbacked Yes27c208.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.31540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes25c203.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6661…277dbacked Yes25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes22c183.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ced…3b37backed Yes27c173.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a1…103ebacked Yes16c163$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes17c144$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.482227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a26…c7aebacked Yes35c137.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes26c136.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c134.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes22c126$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.411030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aab…c911backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a41…bf30backed Yes28c117.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0764backed Yes13c112.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b9f…fb6bbacked Yes28c112.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5e…6a2fbacked Yes13c106.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xccab…cb62backed Yes21c102.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes14c89.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.232429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed Yes29c86.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a08…4471backed Yes34c80.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes17c80.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.663622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c78.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x225f…e3a4backed No69c71.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1657…4068backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+134.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb206…4f9bbacked No68c66.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe33…bd18backed Yes33c66.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d3dbbacked No71c65.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf053…8887backed No75c65.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164a…a6e6backed No75c63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1407…464ebacked No75c61.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1460…b3ddbacked Yes24c60.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.