Movies · resolved market
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1072503ba39d4c172ddf0bde96776277cce7702143efeb45c669bf387ab8aaad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 63,440$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.02 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 2c | 35,009$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 25,350$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 24,960$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.9 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…c710backed Yes | 0c | 19,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 6c | 17,386$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.03 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…80dfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 1c | 13,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…6fdabacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 10,332$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,294$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…eea4backed Yes | 0c | 10,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 6c | 9,770$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.52 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 9,419$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,217$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,278$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 8,021$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…0416backed Yes | 1c | 6,605$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 6,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 2c | 6,067$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…7571backed Yes | 2c | 5,964$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 5,467$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 2c | 4,959$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 3c | 4,010$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 9c | 3,417$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 11c | 2,918$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 1c | 2,864$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 2c | 2,730$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,277$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,050$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 2c | 2,022$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 3c | 2,022$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,746$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 6c | 1,477$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…0ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 6c | 1,224$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,185$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 8c | 1,178$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 8c | 1,096$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a7…6f41backed Yes | 2c | 1,012$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 6c | 907.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 8c | 904.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 9c | 692.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 5c | 669.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 8c | 643.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…e433backed Yes | 2c | 625.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 617.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 535.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 5c | 474.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 436.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes | 3c | 424.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed Yes | 6c | 316.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…ddb0backed Yes | 4c | 253.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 238.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 6c | 236.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 11c | 194.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 189.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 8c | 188.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…2995backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 25c | 107.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 26c | 77.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 75c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?this page
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m?No won
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $30-35m?No won
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m?Yes won
- Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.