TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $40m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,705 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes20c24,200$4,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,884.436023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes13c17,962$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.9117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c16,684$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.151799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes0c15,210$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes17c14,159$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.313119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes17c13,529$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.812250%11 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes3c12,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31032739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes12c9,286$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.537022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes17c9,058$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.5216350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x50af…0693backed Yes1c8,812$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0deb…2549backed Yes17c8,793$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+66.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes30c7,714$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.073447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab21…c521backed No80c6,977$5,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.342263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes26c5,777$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.55848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes3c5,533$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.34190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No74c5,222$3,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.718431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes11c4,981$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.742227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes22c4,886$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.26918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes12c4,504$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.141315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes26c3,625$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.335026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d96…78afbacked Yes0c3,602$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes9c3,241$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.043831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc333…466fbacked Yes1c2,852$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes12c2,644$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4118719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes24c2,255$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.317126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes7c2,222$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb2…d43bbacked Yes16c2,039$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.79520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes20c1,950$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3938330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x621f…9c10backed Yes26c1,925$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c1,872$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes20c1,482$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.551330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes21c1,458$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.673941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes3c1,399$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd24…0416backed Yes1c1,350$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes10c1,200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11816040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes20c1,129$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7419031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes29c1,059$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.699441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes20c1,050$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+80.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes15c901.74$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.123420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes20c878.13$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.77839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes21c835.64$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7714530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef05…3dffbacked Yes27c788$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.761662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes23c696.38$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5159…e44bbacked No73c594.94$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.942250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes35c590.26$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.593928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No79c551.94$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.52634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x473b…6efbbacked Yes15c531.75$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes20c499.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No75c483.28$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.771566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes27c420.57$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2110037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes4c376.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes21c369.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c335.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes29c320.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes22c318.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.131428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes19c317.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.412240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c296.2$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20f4…5ffcbacked No69c288.69$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.873551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes28c284.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4548…025bbacked No67c282.28$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.281435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+71.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c240.34$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes23c176.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No69c172.47$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.476622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes23c172$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.161323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x290c…bd36backed Yes29c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes13c146.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+169.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes9c139.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1246…6192backed No77c127$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.641216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes28c125.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes9c125.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed No69c124.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.66230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes20c115$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.613836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe33…bd18backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08c…d74fbacked Yes26c95.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c16…1ddcbacked Yes17c88.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…15e2backed Yes12c85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2726…12c3backed No77c83.12$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.121275%9 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3226…321cbacked No78c81.81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8b…da67backed Yes39c65.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No78c61.53$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7413135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc84…49f9backed Yes39c54.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes30c50.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+65.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe052…ddb0backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee9…fc8bbacked No63c45.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+122.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbd7…5c29backed Yes34c41.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.656833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ea…1a48backed Yes40c25.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.