TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No42c14,964$6,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,250.6117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes53c10,747$5,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,004.3616350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No56c7,367$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,142.6418431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes29c6,545$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,638.286023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes42c6,333$2,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,654.966918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f77…c5c7backed No1c5,999$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No7c5,789$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.1418719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes54c5,112$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,373.5732639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes44c4,190$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.795026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes40c2,950$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.5113119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes28c2,244$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.352250%11 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes26c2,100$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5568633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes41c1,924$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.923928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No2c1,857$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.58744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No3c1,795$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8611625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No12c1,666$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.941799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes45c1,567$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.3719031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes50c1,510$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7602846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73513635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes31c1,489$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.088330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No76c1,430$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.041136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes33c1,351$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.337022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes60c1,288$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.7520049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes38c1,198$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.8914530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes34c1,145$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.379441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes35c1,065$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.982516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes35c1,021$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.22227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes47c900$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47816040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes76c886.92$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.33161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No47c850$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.92462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes35c785.3$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.451315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes36c784.06$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.757126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes23c778.92$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.387839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No10c769.52$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.731233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3001…d5c3backed Yes30c723.96$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c687.39$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.6787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes60c650$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb2…d43bbacked No15c600$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes54c597$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.494231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes48c555$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.2710037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No3c545$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15920.3%12 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c502.44$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes30c499.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9913150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd24…0416backed No7c459.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed No26c429.56$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes59c424.74$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa93c…17b2backed Yes42c409.12$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.133745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…b66ebacked No3c404.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes60c398.35$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c300.25$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes39c272.44$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.444934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes45c260.37$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes75c246.15$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.514114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x290c…bd36backed Yes58c225.43$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.181533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes54c221.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.01850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed Yes77c207.79$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.793100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes26c194.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes56c185.39$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.711286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes45c185.27$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8412240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes25c183.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.896622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafc7…7543backed Yes31c179.68$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes35c171.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.481323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes65c165.76$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.991566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed No23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.53941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5159…e44bbacked No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes55c138$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.12433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea7…8e04backed Yes32c137.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No46c132.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.973420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes40c126.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.72040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2c…e9babacked Yes38c108.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab3…d62fbacked Yes34c103.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6661…277dbacked Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x492c…1a99backed Yes32c98.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+134.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8260…64a0backed Yes56c94.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfc…8dcbbacked No63c86.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3703…1accbacked Yes38c82.76$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef05…3dffbacked Yes37c75.3$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.441662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes67c75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.084148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked No65c75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3b…dbfdbacked No70c74.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16e…e02fbacked No67c71.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0c…492abacked No44c69.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c68…8bbcbacked No62c67.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65de…aaffbacked No71c66.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe33…bd18backed Yes62c66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9377…75ecbacked No46c65.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5e…350ebacked No70c65.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6e…f399backed Yes31c65.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…51babacked Yes23c65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee9…fc8bbacked Yes35c64.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+122.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa345…1ba8backed Yes40c64.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef71…0641backed No65c63.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3419…e2b5backed No64c62.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.