China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfd785ab373eede7c6122f259a395af3e51f49ac1d25953849554b511aeee104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 6,729$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.17 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 6c | 2,385$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 19c | 2,130$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,405$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd19…bfccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,292$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 21c | 1,140$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 20c | 866.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9c…09ddbacked Yes | 6c | 810.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 795.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…31ccbacked Yes | 8c | 772.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 76c | 700$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 7c | 635.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 7c | 550$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 4c | 444.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 78c | 303.34$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 12c | 287.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…4adbbacked Yes | 4c | 283.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 17c | 230.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 223.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 218.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df3…98aabacked Yes | 8c | 199.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…7631backed Yes | 15c | 183$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…f050backed No | 77c | 175.06$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 19c | 161.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 29c | 158.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 22c | 116.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 19c | 112.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…debebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…951bbacked Yes | 39c | 90.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 79.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 79.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 67c | 77.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…5b9fbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed No | 77c | 30.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…7caabacked No | 73c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…d29ebacked No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…59e5backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.