Us Politics · resolved market
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0ea8931321e9a758662b0c9506338925e509dec142fb606a85aed75528cc97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 8c | 13,610$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 45c | 13,480$6,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,041.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 55c | 9,655$5,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,351.08 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…da00backed Yes | 1c | 5,499$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 4,834$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.46 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 12c | 4,071$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.23 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 10c | 3,184$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 44c | 3,072$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.42 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,891$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…a004backed Yes | 15c | 2,455$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 3c | 2,304$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,282$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 15c | 1,909$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 12c | 1,491$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 51c | 1,462$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.72 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 15c | 1,230$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 60c | 1,098$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.51 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 1,086$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,039$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes | 9c | 794.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 667.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…24afbacked Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 11c | 571.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 13c | 521.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 9c | 505.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 494.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 31c | 493.59$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 14c | 460$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 33c | 458.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 12c | 455.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 451.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…5cfcbacked Yes | 7c | 442.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 8c | 401.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 15c | 352$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 319.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 15c | 318.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 309.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 295.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 16c | 289.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275e…a8ffbacked Yes | 4c | 258.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed Yes | 15c | 240$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…5637backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…09dbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 17c | 181.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 168.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 168$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 16c | 159.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc299…c911backed Yes | 10c | 154.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 27c | 138.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 38c | 130.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 67c | 108.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…764ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 12c | 92.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d9bfbacked Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 15c | 77.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…92bfbacked Yes | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 76c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 50c | 57.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…3582backed Yes | 41c | 31.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.