TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$263,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,131 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ef5…8898backed No27c27,078$7,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,272.631127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked No15c20,953$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.68812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…d154backed Yes74c18,214$13,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,821.99650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c77…2ab6backed No47c12,634$5,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,88720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes73c11,680$8,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.023737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed No15c11,590$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No20c10,547$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.183548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes71c10,051$7,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.251656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No1c6,781$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.763125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No14c4,799$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.556221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No17c3,746$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.1817850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No14c3,486$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.365240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked No15c3,309$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.931127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5b…4f5abacked No14c3,036$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked No15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No15c2,500$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.885916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No18c2,100$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3728632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd5…5683backed No16c2,026$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-88.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2873…9961backed No13c1,796$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No19c1,540$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb7c…97e7backed No16c1,477$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed No16c1,439$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.342458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+51.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No9c1,238$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.469549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No19c1,227$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7810834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed Yes80c1,213$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.824858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes75c1,145$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2873964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa588…dad8backed No11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+123.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe98…be78backed No20c992.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No14c953.54$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13028636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes77c945.1$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.6719348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c914.81$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…30fcbacked No13c903$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No14c868.46$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.944111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed No18c790.92$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.353268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d75…838bbacked No19c785$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No15c665.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.811060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No13c641.05$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4235…ec0abacked No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked No19c532.06$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab5…ba4abacked Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c22…3bcbbacked No14c500$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No13c499.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x960c…e052backed No16c456.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968b…549bbacked No23c438.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No14c378.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1132626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc726…c39abacked No16c372.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.912240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed No19c350$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.12657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No13c333.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.48419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed No16c319$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes11c313.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8511120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe397…8c5bbacked No13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked No19c294.73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…74bdbacked No18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5202…0e82backed No13c276.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No10c265.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.864040%16 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb09…738dbacked Yes76c259.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.81338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4801…af30backed No15c254.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4578…c54abacked No19c247.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.741952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No22c242.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.648817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed No18c226.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51b1…af86backed No17c205.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11012643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8eb3backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+54.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No15c199.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.418615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No15c196.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.571,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Yes76c193.1$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c191.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.971,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked No17c174.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.73417.6%6 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0c…25dfbacked No20c160$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.61450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc793…a48bbacked No19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No16c154.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7321935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No25c145$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.851637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee56…bba5backed No9c140$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed No17c137.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No21c128.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No12c120.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4612736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed No17c120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82450%12 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a36…0d0dbacked No23c108.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d76…b5bcbacked No19c105.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca5…3816backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ef…05bebacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+107%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6851…79cbbacked No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6019…8cb6backed No21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46e3…e5d4backed No16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2426…acf0backed No22c78.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed No14c78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8bb…8e9abacked No14c70.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes76c69.19$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.398256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x422f…ca01backed No16c68.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcd…98cbbacked No20c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15f1…0593backed No22c53.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.781127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b3…10febacked Yes80c50.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.