Us Politics · resolved market
54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d418945091d2f4e3a517906ea6a8670abef60b71c33140de75314a20e46f9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed No | 27c | 27,078$7,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,272.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked No | 15c | 20,953$3,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,192.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 74c | 18,214$13,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,821.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…2ab6backed No | 47c | 12,634$5,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,887 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 73c | 11,680$8,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.02 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed No | 15c | 11,590$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 20c | 10,547$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes | 71c | 10,051$7,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 1c | 6,781$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 14c | 4,799$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.55 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 17c | 3,746$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.18 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 14c | 3,486$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.36 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked No | 15c | 3,309$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked No | 14c | 3,036$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked No | 15c | 2,500$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.88 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 18c | 2,100$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…5683backed No | 16c | 2,026$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…9961backed No | 13c | 1,796$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 19c | 1,540$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7c…97e7backed No | 16c | 1,477$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 16c | 1,439$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 9c | 1,238$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 19c | 1,227$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 80c | 1,213$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.82 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 75c | 1,145$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…dad8backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed No | 20c | 992.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 14c | 953.54$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 77c | 945.1$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.67 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 914.81$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…30fcbacked No | 13c | 903$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 868.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 18c | 790.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…838bbacked No | 19c | 785$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…cc4cbacked No | 15c | 665.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 13c | 641.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…ec0abacked No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked No | 19c | 532.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…ba4abacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…3bcbbacked No | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed No | 16c | 456.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 23c | 438.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 14c | 378.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 16c | 372.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed No | 19c | 350$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 333.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed No | 16c | 319$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 313.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.85 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…8c5bbacked No | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 19c | 294.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…74bdbacked No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…0e82backed No | 13c | 276.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 10c | 265.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Yes | 76c | 259.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…af30backed No | 15c | 254.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked No | 19c | 247.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 242.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 18c | 226.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…af86backed No | 17c | 205.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…8eb3backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 15c | 199.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 196.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Yes | 76c | 193.1$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 191.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked No | 17c | 174.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked No | 20c | 160$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc793…a48bbacked No | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 16c | 154.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 25c | 145$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed No | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…7483backed No | 17c | 137.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 21c | 128.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 12c | 120.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked No | 23c | 108.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…b5bcbacked No | 19c | 105.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…3816backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…79cbbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…8cb6backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…e5d4backed No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2426…acf0backed No | 22c | 78.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed No | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…8e9abacked No | 14c | 70.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 76c | 69.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…ca01backed No | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcd…98cbbacked No | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed No | 22c | 53.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…10febacked Yes | 80c | 50.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.