TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,020,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,872,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,020,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 661 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e13…050ebacked No1c641,660$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a8…7e4cbacked No0c539,186$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe928…4d05backed No0c492,028$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfb…49fbbacked No0c490,805$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…235bbacked No0c390,548$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…b6abbacked No1c285,663$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f7…4cd8backed No0c256,300$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873c…ac48backed No0c250,600$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4b…4c06backed No0c221,460$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed No0c205,335$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.039810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked No1c201,024$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0221050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf82…f5bbbacked No0c149,259$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd88…79edbacked No0c148,571$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed No1c140,543$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…ab83backed No0c123,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4d…0b91backed No0c111,143$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a2…6becbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb66…9620backed No0c99,930$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4f…277fbacked No0c99,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe3…ded8backed No0c91,115$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a7…dde1backed No0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c01…5e40backed No0c87,030$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No1c78,273$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.092425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed No1c77,688$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdca…bfefbacked No1c67,394$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d4…8ceabacked No1c63,000$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3943…86cabacked No0c60,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked No0c54,139$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No1c54,017$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.759958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c7…2134backed No0c51,119$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d25…4031backed No0c50,351$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f6f…ea97backed No0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd159…0076backed No1c47,369$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No1c44,681$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.497146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xacc1…84edbacked No1c44,600$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked No0c43,850$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.661741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c40,431$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.29580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked No1c38,636$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.71520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc682…411bbacked No0c37,800$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3a…db7cbacked No0c37,113$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1c…e773backed No1c36,180$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No0c35,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6911…9c14backed No0c35,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No0c34,777$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.782025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x862b…e9e5backed No9c33,516$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed No1c33,497$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…9c74backed No0c33,183$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f17…342dbacked No0c32,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f9a…684bbacked No1c31,707$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ff…e0f8backed No1c30,512$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed No1c30,357$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed13…e733backed No1c28,911$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9167…f340backed No0c28,850$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No1c28,715$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.433514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67db…21adbacked No1c28,240$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.961926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No59c26,881$15,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,813.28450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c26,662$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.03210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec1…d355backed No0c26,580$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…5ac3backed No0c26,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7dd…3696backed No0c25,770$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed No1c25,635$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6440…28cdbacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked No0c25,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1972…56a7backed No0c24,490$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+70.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c22…4ca9backed No0c24,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…31e9backed No0c23,800$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No2c23,345$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.5311612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f3…4411backed No1c23,337$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No1c23,050$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.067045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c22,862$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.062400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0dd9…8919backed No1c22,547$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866b…1bcdbacked No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3654…339fbacked No0c21,896$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes34c21,156$7,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,944.235240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e5…2f6fbacked No1c20,438$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402532%8 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No0c20,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe34…dba1backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec2c…8f69backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f9…3649backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa309…0f3ebacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…f4a2backed No0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes45c20,000$8,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,000.287638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No57c19,752$11,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,235.643737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c19,436$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.612847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc13…523ebacked No0c19,273$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes34c19,189$6,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,57115646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e9…207fbacked No1c19,060$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…56aebacked No0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed No14c18,177$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.441513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x441c…90cfbacked No0c18,123$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No23c17,650$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,995.127354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb7c…97e7backed No1c17,091$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed No19c17,019$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2001020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce7…a932backed No0c16,880$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd0…c4c4backed No1c16,765$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…f0abbacked No0c16,735$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No60c16,498$9,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,871.49549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.