TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$160,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$199,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No28c14,015$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.6579639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x459c…2958backed No45c9,344$4,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,163.2450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No51c8,066$4,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,090.5240254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb586…7f97backed Yes45c7,462$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,120.672147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed No48c6,592$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.842330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid+379.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No46c6,509$2,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.7522744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes53c5,630$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.3132158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes77c4,126$3,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.726854.4%37 W · 31 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No16c4,020$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9137841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked No51c3,548$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.9313547.4%64 W · 71 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No54c3,142$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.5190751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4861…6cbfbacked Yes56c3,115$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.74540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked Yes55c2,509$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.051844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1577…8949backed Yes76c2,074$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.431838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes53c2,000$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94544939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5efc…9b2abacked Yes53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9401741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94038649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No47c2,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9815337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7432…794bbacked Yes53c1,766$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.6711937%44 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Yes53c1,634$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.77955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f16…5bb0backed No68c1,520$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.671050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb90e…5794backed Yes53c1,321$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.753348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No32c1,271$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.0537652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x558e…9d39backed Yes53c1,214$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Yes60c1,088$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.3513336.1%48 W · 85 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44017234.3%59 W · 113 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55017945.8%82 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No49c999.98$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.998145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes50c998$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4995637.5%21 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed No47c940$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.82450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eae…f263backed Yes43c922.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.319037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes77c900$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.53262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Yes56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8611638.8%45 W · 71 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaafb…3027backed Yes56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Yes56c892.03$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.84742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Yes54c887.98$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.473644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes54c853.18$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.717651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed No45c831.83$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37639561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed Yes52c769.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.231553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes66c761.97$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9714156.7%80 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1396…b149backed Yes53c754.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.692454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Yes53c750$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.52050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Yes55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3153151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes47c633.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.1229044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4f…799cbacked No49c608.16$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes79c600$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.142564%16 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa57a…66d6backed Yes53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe87…8b1dbacked Yes53c599.99$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes59c595$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.610341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked No52c579.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.154252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes52c574.44$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.4410445.2%47 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…998abacked Yes52c510.46$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x308f…35cabacked No56c499.95$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.971250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed No49c486$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.142725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No56c471.11$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.3956158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed No63c447.89$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.174339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed No49c443.49$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21815347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fee…8f96backed Yes49c443.27$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aa1…637bbacked Yes51c414.88$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.885644.6%25 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes56c409.03$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0869772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No28c408.63$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1634251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce48…3a25backed Yes70c402.41$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd715…e8f9backed Yes51c390.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab2…b58abacked Yes53c376.38$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.91560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00b…9c89backed Yes56c367.23$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…c4e4backed Yes55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No56c358$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4860557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a07…4769backed Yes52c328.85$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.851376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+46.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d6d…f360backed No22c318.25$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.512128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf305…4c09backed No57c305.91$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.071250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No26c302.78$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7824062.5%150 W · 90 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fdd…0661backed No48c301.93$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes54c300$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13921153.1%112 W · 99 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e59…3267backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…cefebacked Yes52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c0…846cbacked Yes48c293.35$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.541637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.734742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5b1…d2e6backed Yes55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.73757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d5…a3d0backed Yes43c268.77$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.77650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…b53dbacked Yes77c259.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5391…e91ebacked Yes78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4125637.9%97 W · 159 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Yes79c254.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.434555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e24…b99cbacked Yes77c252.49$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.31837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No56c250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14014854.1%80 W · 68 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No23c235.54$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1721353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa37a…c252backed Yes52c233.69$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.17771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+75.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88cf…7d31backed Yes76c233.02$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.925151%26 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked No19c230$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211915.1%18 W · 101 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7cb…2093backed No29c230$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…b756backed Yes54c230$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.43857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2711342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a31…fed2backed Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.272755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb179…d584backed Yes47c225$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba35…0e3abacked Yes44c224.82$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No56c222$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3217143.3%74 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.