Premier League · resolved market
Will Tottenham vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd0c7088e0dc0c36902a28418bf7fd7522a7046024bb27c59e11ef28a8219a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58ab…008cbacked Yes | 23c | 10,067$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b4…a5ebbacked No | 77c | 10,027$7,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 20c | 4,314$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 18c | 3,010$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.37 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd715…e8f9backed Yes | 28c | 2,773$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 24c | 1,955$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 1,436$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.52 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed No | 78c | 1,279$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…5794backed Yes | 24c | 1,261$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 78c | 1,148$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.06 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 76c | 1,053$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 3c | 910$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.45 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…9c89backed Yes | 27c | 816.6$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 23c | 773$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 25c | 712.82$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…21e3backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 6c | 435.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…0af2backed Yes | 24c | 401.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…eb11backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…8260backed No | 79c | 295.16$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…e91ebacked Yes | 24c | 290.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…c4e4backed Yes | 24c | 290.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 76c | 282.95$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…a9f9backed No | 77c | 245.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 77c | 224.38$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 24c | 208.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a99…96eabacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfff…0e5dbacked No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…868cbacked Yes | 12c | 197.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked No | 79c | 190.66$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…1289backed Yes | 23c | 172.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 75c | 172.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5860…acbcbacked No | 79c | 154.03$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…af6cbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 17c | 127.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b0…c712backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 76c | 119$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d9d4backed No | 79c | 110.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3a…3691backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 26c | 97.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ff…458bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…6fd3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54c…7ceabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 23c | 63.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7005backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…6d22backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…cefebacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 76c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…632fbacked No | 79c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tottenham vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04?Yes won
- Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.