TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe973…7005

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
123
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NFL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 57 out of 100; worst NHL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST4146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NHL — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Predatorsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$93
Predators vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21.44
Oilers vs. Krakenbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+57.1%+$14.54
Sabres vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+52.5%+$13.77
Lightning vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$18.8
Utah vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+61.3%+$15.2
Red Wings vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$26.8
Canadiens vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.6
Bruins vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+69.5%+$16.4
Wild vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$26.8
Blues vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.2
Devils vs. Sharksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Rangers vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+61.3%+$15.2
Predators vs. Canucksbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Canadiens vs. Blackhawksbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Penguins vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+52.1%+$6.85
Canucks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Lightning vs. Sharksbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14.6
Flyers vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+53.8%+$7
Senators vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+51.5%+$6.8
Ducks vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
Bruins vs. Rangersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Maple Leafs vs. Islandersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Wild vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.8
Jets vs. Sharksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+44.1%+$122.63
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2025, EST3268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Pelicansbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$49.98
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+203%+$204.35
Heat vs. Clippersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$95.84
Hawks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+44.9%+$12.4
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+72.4%+$16.8
Jazz vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$30.4
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+72.4%+$16.8
Knicks vs. Bullsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$26.8
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$28.4
Suns vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+75.4%+$17.2
76ers vs. Netsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+31.6%+$9.6
Hawks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Cavaliers vs. Mavericksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+53.8%+$7
Celtics vs. Rocketsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+39.4%+$5.65
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+123.9%+$190.22
Nets vs. Raptorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,835Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+161.6%+$2,965.48
Jazz vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$198.72
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+29.3%+$68
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST-100%-$132.59
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST1957.9%11 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$33.44
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.4
Will Southampton vs. Brentford end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+35.2%+$10.42
Will Aston Villa vs. Leicester end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+33.3%+$10
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+34.2%+$10.2
Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.8
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Bournemouth vs. Everton end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+31.6%+$9.6
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+73.9%+$17
Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$23.2
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+31%+$9.47
Will Southampton win on 2025-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will Tottenham vs. Newcastle end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+27.4%+$8.6
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+90.5%+$19
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$168.25
Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$221.35
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+37.6%+$27.3
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$61
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+25%+$20
All 19 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2025, EST1283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+78.6%+$17.6
Broncos vs. Chargersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$123
Bears vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+31.6%+$72
Packers vs. Seahawksbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+72.3%+$43
Colts vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+49.3%+$33
Steelers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+40.8%+$29
Patriots vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+38.9%+$28
Buccaneers vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Cowboys vs. Panthersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+138.1%+$58
Commanders vs. Saintsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+28.2%+$22
Chiefs vs. Brownsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+42.9%+$30
Bengals vs. Titansbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+40.8%+$49.3
All 12 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Buffalo State vs. Libertybacked Buffalo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+56.3%+$14.4
Duke vs. Ole Missbacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$35.99
Notre Dame vs. Georgiabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$34.75
Memphis vs. West Virginiabacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+49.3%+$99
All 4 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Was JFK assassination an inside job?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.23
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Jersey mystery drones from foreign country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$53.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.