Premier League · resolved market
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc956b10a339271f45125c65a99c6afba4ce7a9105d38006442360f69014c5e60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 27c | 8,255$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.08 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked No | 6c | 3,434$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed Yes | 51c | 2,990$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 26c | 1,829$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.7 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 75c | 1,337$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…6d69backed No | 74c | 1,183$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 18c | 1,081$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…b58abacked Yes | 65c | 848.71$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…3921backed Yes | 77c | 739.43$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a07…4769backed Yes | 62c | 736.62$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…0e36backed Yes | 79c | 582.68$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Yes | 64c | 577.13$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 76c | 550.08$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked No | 39c | 509.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed No | 75c | 442$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…65c6backed Yes | 49c | 430.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 79c | 430$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 72c | 410.02$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.21 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 28c | 308.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 56c | 293.28$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…c4e4backed Yes | 40c | 278.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 23c | 261.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 245$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 222.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 57c | 220.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 25c | 218.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 25c | 213.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 30c | 211.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…e91ebacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…ad4fbacked Yes | 26c | 205.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…06f6backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…b3e3backed Yes | 26c | 193.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +217.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 73c | 192.68$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…a15abacked No | 50c | 191.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 27c | 183.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 74c | 162.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…bbd8backed Yes | 20c | 147.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d9d4backed No | 75c | 147.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed Yes | 69c | 145.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 28c | 139$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…e17fbacked Yes | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…04e3backed Yes | 28c | 135.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…c252backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…637bbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd044…6a24backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…b270backed Yes | 41c | 87.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…61a6backed Yes | 30c | 83.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…8260backed No | 49c | 81.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…a896backed No | 76c | 81.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 75c | 74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…054dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…271dbacked No | 75c | 71.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…afcabacked Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2c98backed Yes | 26c | 67.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a56…0fc7backed No | 76c | 66.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6168…8199backed No | 75c | 63.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf8…93c3backed No | 75c | 59.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…5284backed No | 76c | 57.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb07…0defbacked Yes | 52c | 56.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…5b44backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…b299backed Yes | 69c | 49.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…916dbacked Yes | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…9858backed Yes | 65c | 41.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 63c | 41.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7005backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 55c | 30.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb02b…6350backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c92…325cbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04?No won
- Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.