Premier League · resolved market
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5817e148183be3af45455699ed92fbf2ba4846525f94e6710ac454bc9dc9d002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e54…44fdbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 13,102$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.48 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…702cbacked No | 80c | 4,282$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 79c | 2,450$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.55 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…0c21backed Yes | 22c | 1,385$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,372$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 78c | 999$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.78 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 7c | 995.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 21c | 980.04$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.81 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 20c | 897.08$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 20c | 751.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadff…e3f3backed Yes | 16c | 695.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 76c | 666.83$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…69b2backed Yes | 7c | 570.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 78c | 520.51$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 79c | 499.96$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…e91ebacked Yes | 7c | 488.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…d101backed Yes | 15c | 476.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 78c | 401.47$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 21c | 376.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 79c | 346.19$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 79c | 317$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 80c | 292.5$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…2fd2backed Yes | 20c | 254$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…a870backed Yes | 23c | 253.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 13c | 241.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 79c | 241.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 21c | 233.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed No | 80c | 218.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 79c | 165.91$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 79c | 150.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 20c | 150.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 80c | 137$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed No | 80c | 127.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…b2b3backed Yes | 21c | 125.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…0219backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…a3d0backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…b28abacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 79c | 122$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bf64backed No | 80c | 112.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9373…f905backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af4…706ebacked No | 79c | 93.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…db37backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…6fc6backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…f416backed No | 80c | 52.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 78c | 41.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 79c | 34.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…c2dfbacked No | 79c | 34.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…601abacked No | 80c | 33.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93a…c472backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked No | 78c | 26.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…06c7backed No | 80c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011a…bbefbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…e637backed No | 80c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…83febacked No | 80c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc102…483fbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…c444backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 79cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…5fb2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +243.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…791abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04?No won
- Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.