China Taiwan · resolved market
New Jersey mystery drones from foreign country?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fffe49316ec5249523441ce66a8511c756fe2a3e5fcc03a3d1040bba3e9d753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $379,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 27,804$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 3c | 5,707$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…a87fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,803$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 4c | 3,017$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f4…cffdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,753$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…8588backed Yes | 2c | 2,050$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…5f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,050$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e87…581abacked Yes | 2c | 2,020$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,898$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…06e0backed Yes | 11c | 1,664$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 1,632$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…db7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 9c | 1,504$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…f974backed Yes | 7c | 1,396$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed Yes | 8c | 1,384$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 1c | 1,366$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1204…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,233$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 5c | 995.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 3c | 875.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…d74bbacked Yes | 6c | 866.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 830.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 10c | 800$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 789.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 780.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…209dbacked Yes | 8c | 690.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 17c | 658.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…aa39backed Yes | 11c | 569.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…b676backed Yes | 4c | 530.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 2c | 467.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 418.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…4746backed Yes | 11c | 394.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…099bbacked Yes | 5c | 385$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 15c | 361.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 12c | 335.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…8a81backed Yes | 7c | 329.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…7005backed Yes | 17c | 318.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed Yes | 6c | 316.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 13c | 291.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0839…022ebacked Yes | 5c | 289.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…750ebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 19c | 262.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…5ad1backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 80c | 228.16$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 19c | 218$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 8c | 211.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fe…0675backed Yes | 10c | 200.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 5c | 200.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef4…f76dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 189.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 11c | 188.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 183.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 182.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 16c | 156.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…d05fbacked Yes | 8c | 144.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…0b60backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…415ebacked Yes | 17c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 20c | 109.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed No | 75c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 18c | 81.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c2…66f0backed Yes | 27c | 57.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…9ecebacked Yes | 20c | 56.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8202…2c29backed Yes | 21c | 53.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7625…b365backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…83cdbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.