TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97f2…a87f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 60 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2024, EST1675%12 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Netsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+127.7%+$72.9
Nets vs. Raptorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+123.9%+$231.86
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+28.9%+$28
Nuggets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST-100%-$43.01
Bulls vs. Raptorsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+98.4%+$62
Heat vs. Pistonsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$81
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+79.2%+$55.25
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+72.4%+$44.16
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+61.3%+$38
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+58.7%+$37
Pelicans vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+38.9%+$28
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+44.9%+$6.2
Raptors vs. Lakersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$15.74
Pelicans vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+265%+$145.2
Nuggets vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$48.01
Mavericks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT+170.3%+$18.9
All 16 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2024, EST1580%12 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Raidersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+42.9%+$37.5
Bears vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+31.6%+$30
Packers vs. Seahawksbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+72.4%+$41.99
Colts vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+49.3%+$33
Steelers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+40.8%+$29
Patriots vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+38.9%+$28.02
Buccaneers vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Cowboys vs. Panthersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+138.1%+$58
Commanders vs. Saintsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+28.2%+$22
Chiefs vs. Brownsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+42.9%+$30
Dolphins vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+72.4%+$42
Bengals vs. Titansbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+40.8%+$29
Jets vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$38
Lions vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST-100%-$47
Giants vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+45.5%+$5
All 15 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2024, EST1060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Canucksbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST-100%-$70.3
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST-100%-$70
Capitals vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+71.9%+$10.36
Rangers vs. Bluesbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$54
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+102.7%+$50.67
Sabres vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+56.3%+$36
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+29.9%+$23
Islanders vs. Blackhawksbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$61.9
Predators vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+58.7%+$7.4
Blues vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+47.1%+$6.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2024, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-36.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Alabama vs. Western Michiganbacked South Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+44.9%+$6.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New Jersey mystery drones from foreign country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$542.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$695.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 27, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Helene make landfall at category 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$753Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$753.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$614Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$613.82
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.