Weather · resolved market
Will Helene make landfall at category 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b17acd2f5f750e2a27bfad4e9324648673edd34e761257a88ca8e8cc693d95d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf587…e3b2backed Yes | 2c | 18,644$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 15c | 5,304$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…a87fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,141$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe322…99ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,031$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 54c | 878.86$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 9c | 529.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 52c | 504.09$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 52c | 485$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 449.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 14c | 430.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 40c | 416.45$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 38c | 381$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 54c | 350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 71c | 217.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 57c | 217.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa90e…30efbacked Yes | 36c | 215.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 46c | 194.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 45c | 177.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 42c | 175$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c85…2db4backed Yes | 79c | 127.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…dfaabacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…1301backed Yes | 54c | 89.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 82.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 36c | 80.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…440ebacked Yes | 15c | 77.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…baadbacked No | 54c | 69.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…fd35backed No | 44c | 58.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 56c | 55.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 47c | 42.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2027backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…95e8backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Helene make landfall at category 3?this page
- Will Helene make landfall at category 1 or weaker?No won
- Will Helene make landfall at category 2?No won
- Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.