Weather · resolved market
Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d01c7f04a70b5197979c00e10d328424035f3ad0e201ce67d31da55749311d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 77c | 4,908$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 4c | 2,812$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…6d8fbacked Yes | 72c | 2,795$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 38c | 2,377$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 18c | 2,152$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 48c | 2,059$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 58c | 1,465$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed Yes | 76c | 1,110$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No | 7c | 1,070$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 50c | 834.03$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 57c | 732.62$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…e3b2backed No | 36c | 701.21$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 43c | 612.94$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 45c | 500$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 5c | 489.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 458.71$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 49c | 439.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 33c | 421.09$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 53c | 407.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 13c | 356.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 40c | 356.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 39c | 355$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed No | 59c | 304.15$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 282.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 48c | 194.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 20c | 147.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…02a1backed Yes | 72c | 145.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…d84bbacked Yes | 68c | 131.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed No | 37c | 119.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 54c | 105.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…fd35backed No | 62c | 103$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ea…4f2abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…32a7backed Yes | 75c | 94.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…b00dbacked Yes | 55c | 80.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…aa17backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…8ef1backed Yes | 31c | 65.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c85…2db4backed No | 47c | 64.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…e2b3backed Yes | 52c | 55.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 54c | 55.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 49c | 54.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 72c | 47.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…d35ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…1301backed Yes | 70c | 42.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…5e9fbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…6fe8backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…baf5backed Yes | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked Yes | 45c | 33.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…11e4backed Yes | 45c | 30.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 78c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed No | 80c | 26.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…c1debacked No | 57c | 26.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 54c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…440ebacked Yes | 71c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Helene make landfall at category 4 or stronger?this page
- Will Helene make landfall at category 1 or weaker?No won
- Will Helene make landfall at category 2?No won
- Will Helene make landfall at category 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.