World Politics · resolved market
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7365208720dac4019e847e5dc11e795ec5392997d570ae26b89383c806561a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,942,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,202,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,942,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 533,647$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.59 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 327,527$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.31 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e70…17c0backed Yes | 0c | 317,152$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef0…71a6backed Yes | 0c | 288,320$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 140,884$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…6329backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…fa13backed Yes | 0c | 61,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…f106backed Yes | 0c | 55,645$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0569…7ae3backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 52,739$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…fd9dbacked Yes | 0c | 46,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 33,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…e576backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…ffebbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803c…8cd6backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8f…7c80backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 24,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecb…0038backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b11dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 23,900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…9ee8backed Yes | 0c | 22,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…dea0backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 21,550$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…896ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,128$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…4802backed Yes | 0c | 19,250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…797abacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 14,633$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…8c33backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,807$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…61fcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…8076backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 0c | 12,023$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…de95backed Yes | 0c | 11,630$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…84d4backed Yes | 0c | 11,620$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 11,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…9d84backed Yes | 0c | 11,022$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…2093backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…5975backed Yes | 0c | 10,750$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…6c2abacked Yes | 0c | 10,645$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a82…2e52backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -89%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 9,438$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5f…e054backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…a87fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,224$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 0c | 8,114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b144backed Yes | 0c | 7,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…0507backed Yes | 0c | 7,030$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 0c | 6,641$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…3e11backed Yes | 0c | 6,603$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…890dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…864bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…13aebacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…967dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…928abacked Yes | 0c | 5,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…6f5abacked Yes | 0c | 5,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 5,323$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4feb…bbdbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…e120backed Yes | 0c | 4,956$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…fd61backed Yes | 0c | 4,293$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…147dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…13bebacked Yes | 0c | 4,080$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…e6e6backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…09b0backed Yes | 1c | 3,628$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…5f47backed Yes | 1c | 3,261$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…8fafbacked Yes | 0c | 3,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…a3dabacked Yes | 0c | 2,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c7…bbaabacked Yes | 0c | 2,513$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,857$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 3c | 1,192$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…a143backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 2c | 750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?this page
- Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Artur Bartoszewicz be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Joanna Senyszyn be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Yes won
- Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Woch be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.