TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,916,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,379,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,916,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9918214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes1c85,464$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80895.6%5 W · 84 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-90.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c55,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1445132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c54,219$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.444121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c45,797$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3290%0 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes0c45,629$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2710734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d75…a4cbbacked Yes0c45,078$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66be…5544backed Yes0c34,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed Yes0c27,185$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.56405%2 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-84.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c26,550$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.584521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…7374backed Yes3c21,969$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes1c20,244$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20684.4%3 W · 65 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+417.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes0c18,400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.44520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73db…03b5backed Yes1c17,696$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+218.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x779a…d1a1backed Yes1c17,471$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes1c16,157$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.49728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick6cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b00…b3a1backed Yes1c15,611$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd95…8486backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+82.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3281…a704backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a1…3dd5backed Yes1c9,376$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dc…ae46backed Yes0c9,111$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7836…de10backed Yes1c8,508$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3f…1b5abacked Yes0c7,965$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick14cpaid+223.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7ca…c72fbacked Yes0c7,809$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdda0…a58abacked Yes0c7,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+113.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb790…d276backed Yes0c6,861$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b3…c12ebacked Yes1c6,790$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368f…fe1bbacked Yes1c6,750$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb787…18babacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+153.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b69…3474backed Yes1c6,550$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede6…d8efbacked Yes1c6,050$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe661…f6bbbacked Yes1c6,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea34…179cbacked Yes1c5,800$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a79…181ebacked Yes1c5,523$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd9…584ebacked Yes1c5,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…f153backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+112.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes3c4,999$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.99728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c4,674$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd2…0878backed Yes0c4,338$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185d…a6d4backed Yes1c4,200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744c…113bbacked Yes1c4,190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff5…28a9backed Yes1c3,820$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.25450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+106.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03d5…a3d0backed Yes1c3,686$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.06450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+143.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec75…8786backed Yes2c2,941$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Yes1c2,558$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d8…3461backed Yes4c2,538$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a7…1166backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e4…ab72backed Yes1c2,285$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5c…2c55backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes1c2,190$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.362420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-71%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc6…1eabbacked Yes1c2,026$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.03825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16380%0 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a5…d157backed Yes2c1,950$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-82%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe4d…a736backed Yes1c1,750$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7a…c954backed Yes2c1,602$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd4…35e8backed Yes1c1,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,528$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.221,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Yes1c1,484$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f1…2e54backed Yes1c1,408$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb3d…024ebacked Yes1c1,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+66.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691f…d3ecbacked Yes2c1,243$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7880%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8e…4e3bbacked Yes1c1,180$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.27812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-72.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-90.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes1c865.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes6c760.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.911723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes3c703.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes5c677.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.053619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fe…976abacked Yes2c504.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb058…a143backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1f…1f0ebacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a89…71adbacked Yes3c450$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-77.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c364.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes3c334$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes4c295$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes6c251.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.895518.2%10 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.