World Politics · resolved market
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95874e7c989d91e5268ed7e880acb9269f13803ea0b5629f4a6acd1a4b5d6fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,480,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,865,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,480,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf46…9c5dbacked Yes | 0c | 967,980$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…eb02backed Yes | 0c | 967,980$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…a6f9backed Yes | 0c | 883,489$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6681…d6a8backed Yes | 0c | 857,220$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…e5febacked Yes | 0c | 857,220$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b93backed Yes | 0c | 854,989$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,564.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…8b68backed Yes | 0c | 773,469$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…0928backed Yes | 0c | 769,322$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…89c8backed Yes | 0c | 744,822$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…1741backed Yes | 0c | 740,828$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…2064backed Yes | 0c | 740,454$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…3f33backed Yes | 0c | 740,454$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 0c | 343,396$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.5 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 296,531$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.59 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae74…410ebacked Yes | 0c | 207,987$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes | 0c | 110,392$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 71,108$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…79ffbacked Yes | 0c | 58,870$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…cfb4backed Yes | 0c | 58,635$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4397…df54backed Yes | 0c | 54,085$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c73…b7eebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 34,586$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…896ebacked Yes | 0c | 26,250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,826$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…be26backed Yes | 0c | 23,734$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,684$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 6cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Yes | 0c | 22,917$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Yes | 0c | 22,730$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…c5f7backed Yes | 0c | 21,228$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…e0acbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,877$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…b192backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 0c | 11,224$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f9…de78backed Yes | 0c | 8,425$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…44c6backed Yes | 0c | 8,090$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…8da6backed Yes | 0c | 8,025$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…d89dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fb…dbe3backed Yes | 0c | 7,872$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…f908backed Yes | 0c | 7,750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb9…9f98backed Yes | 1c | 6,535$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…4576backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…27bebacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…5d3fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…5da1backed Yes | 0c | 5,843$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…fd18backed Yes | 0c | 5,720$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…44edbacked Yes | 0c | 5,265$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…b9c9backed Yes | 0c | 5,205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…0998backed Yes | 0c | 5,133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 4,667$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…d89abacked Yes | 0c | 2,903$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…63fbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,504$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…1b79backed Yes | 0c | 2,504$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb6…17fdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,484$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 1,745$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…a143backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?this page
- Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Artur Bartoszewicz be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Joanna Senyszyn be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Yes won
- Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Woch be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.