TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,486,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,677,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,486,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8977…22ffbacked Yes0c515,290$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.31414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c207,230$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.695132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes1c138,559$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b6…8eaabacked Yes1c120,977$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6474…ee3abacked Yes0c117,603$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd687…4faabacked Yes0c95,936$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.42728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick11cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd82…6adcbacked Yes1c85,154$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+72.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c70,688$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.914121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes0c66,894$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.681030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes0c65,299$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200895.6%5 W · 84 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-90.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c61,499$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116290%0 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes0c59,898$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.81618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274d…8141backed Yes0c56,072$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…52c8backed Yes1c55,957$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes0c55,589$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.59728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick6cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca8…504cbacked Yes0c38,573$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.98450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d15…004ebacked Yes1c38,343$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25b…7fccbacked Yes0c34,344$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a8…da98backed Yes0c30,320$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c29,708$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.254521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x928f…dcfbbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes0c22,706$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6345723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes0c21,775$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4233…85f7backed Yes0c20,218$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd02…d996backed Yes0c20,144$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605f…3e97backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa8…7194backed Yes1c19,988$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…95bdbacked Yes0c18,550$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+70.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7646…5ac8backed Yes0c17,763$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8b…c031backed Yes0c17,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb96…03f3backed Yes0c17,350$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541d…e098backed Yes0c16,957$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.87616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c15,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf051…e4edbacked Yes0c14,907$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+89.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c7…3a9cbacked Yes0c14,337$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f67…6538backed Yes1c14,128$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf4…5e01backed Yes0c13,548$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+92.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c73…b7eebacked Yes1c13,439$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee74…d67abacked Yes1c13,171$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c9…4311backed Yes0c13,119$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x600e…2b95backed Yes0c12,978$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…47d6backed Yes0c12,375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d2…3093backed Yes0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…23e4backed Yes0c10,299$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2589…ebd2backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b1…2379backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef43…602bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e1…310abacked Yes1c9,826$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.91450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa421…86a8backed Yes0c9,443$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae81…fa6fbacked Yes0c9,251$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+126.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40b5…dea3backed Yes0c9,212$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+113.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa9…dd60backed Yes1c8,408$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…e648backed Yes0c8,250$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3468…af0bbacked Yes0c8,160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a25…f225backed Yes0c8,050$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…f153backed Yes0c7,950$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+112.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc5…f86fbacked Yes0c7,635$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc708…21c6backed Yes0c7,613$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…fdf9backed Yes1c7,594$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+115.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x210f…9693backed Yes0c7,590$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x243d…b69abacked Yes0c7,325$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e60…3b30backed Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick18cpaid+145.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9f…a24fbacked Yes0c6,861$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…e03abacked Yes0c6,253$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.56450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+185.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4afc…1f34backed Yes0c5,937$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4831…a68fbacked Yes1c5,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9400…7566backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5705…aa6ebacked Yes1c5,468$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd09…2211backed Yes0c5,425$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e73…4feabacked Yes0c5,214$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+142.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ab…da6fbacked Yes1c5,204$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc6…1eabbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…0a84backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3062…957cbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20684.4%3 W · 65 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+417.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd6…6625backed Yes1c4,666$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb47…15febacked Yes2c4,254$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+164.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f7…e8d5backed Yes1c4,137$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.54425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf5a…746fbacked Yes1c4,111$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe87…7ca4backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd3…4d83backed Yes1c3,960$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes0c3,746$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd073…6e4ebacked Yes1c3,584$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca01…4103backed Yes0c3,450$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f99…0665backed Yes0c3,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae2…04d2backed Yes1c3,096$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,017$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb1…59b8backed Yes0c2,750$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x337b…e03cbacked Yes1c2,233$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8a…90f2backed Yes1c2,114$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd757…42acbacked Yes1c2,076$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,038$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.051,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474e…ab23backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1535…45dcbacked Yes1c1,914$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…3651backed Yes1c1,870$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba16…4cacbacked Yes1c1,355$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.